What do we know about Superforecasting?

 

By K. Nikolopoulos

—  For the first time we have empirical evidence that it might work - that there are people out there that are far better than others in the task of ...Forecasting;

Still, many face this result with skepticism and attribute it to the laws of probability, but still consistently be able to win a forecasting competition over a large period of time is unheard;

Once you identify the Superforecasters in your organization, it pays back to train them further, even short training, spells of 1h sessions, every few months;

It also pays back to put them in groups, could be interaction or even Delphi groups (possibly);

Finally, there is evidence that you can further fine tune and debiases the final forecast produces through clever statistical forecasting algorithms. Either way, fan or not, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecasting:_The_Art_and_Science_of_Prediction should be in your bookshelf. Nobody ever got hurt from reading popular (or real) science!