Divination in Ancient Greece as a Precursor to Modern Forecasting (pt. 1)

 

By D. Staikos

Just like today’s people, ancient Greeks were also preoccupied with what the future held for them. In this regard, divination was a method employed to deal with the uncertainties of the future. Divination was about perceiving “signs”, which were believed to be of supernatural origin, and subsequently interpreting them, in order to gain useful information. The aforementioned procedure could either be delivered by the interested individual himself, if he thought himself skilled enough to do so, or by an expert, a diviner (μάντης). Whether such an expert should be trusted was a matter of his skills, special interests and integrity combined. Oracles, the ones situated in Delphi and Dodona being the most popular and acknowledged, belong to the latter category.

Perhaps the most interesting part of divination was its outcome: what did ancient Greeks expect to gain from divination? Research has shown that it was mostly advice as a guide to potential action, not concrete predictions that they were seeking. In fact, the latter would contradict the predominant notion of the day that the future was not predefined, but malleable and additionally, that chance (τύχη) could play a part in one’s fate. How was such advice generated? Was it of supernatural nature, just like the “signs” were believed to be? To answer this question, it would prove useful to examine the organization of Delphi oracle.

According to existing evidence, Delphi was hierarchically structured, with the priests - prophets on top, followed by a council of Delphian notables and various magistrates. Apart from the agents internal to this structure, there were also individuals external to it, but inextricably linked to the oracle, like delegates from the ancient Greek city states and Delphi’s liaisons in the most important of these cities. Taking into consideration that the oracle also held several other private contacts, it is safe to claim that this external mechanism, intended to suit the needs of Delphi’s internal structure, was assigned with the task of providing the latter with the necessary input, that is information relevant to the oracle’s mission.

(continued in part II)